Tag Archives: computing

Will the Thailand floods drown the hard drive?

Will the Thailand floods drown the hard drive? | ExtremeTech.

Looks like rain...

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There’s fresh news on the imminent hard drive shortages the IT industry is facing, and it isn’t particularly good. Asus’s CFO, David Chang, has warned that the company’s supplies of HDDs will run out by the end of November.

“Substitutes for HDD are very few, so if the situation persists, not only notebook production will be affected but also desktops, and other component shipments will also drop,” Chang told Reuters. Retail prices on HDDs are already skyrocketing. The 1TB Samsung Spinpoint F3?s price has risen to $79 at Newegg, up from $69 not two weeks ago. It’s now the only 1TB drive south of a Benjamin. WD’s Caviar Green series is now up to $109 with high performance drives like the Caviar Black all the way back to $169 for a 1TB model.

Hitachi’s Deskstar 7K3000, which debuted this spring at $180 for a 3TB drive, is now selling on Newegg for a cool $399. Consumer prices are being driven by speculation, though its impossible to say if Newegg or the drive manufacturers themselves are responsible. Between the two, Newegg seems the more likely suspect. Raising HDD prices immediately may win the HDD manufacturers greater profits in the short term, but it erodes the crucial cost/GB ratio between HDDs and SSDs. Even at current retail prices, there’s still no real subsitute for a hard drive. At a certain point, however, customers will stop preferring large capacity drives at purchase, and begin opting for smaller SSDs, possibly with plans to pick up a USB 3.0-powered external once HDD prices fall again.

WD Factory, Thailed

The best way to keep that from happening is for the HDD manufacturers to keep as tight a reign on OEM costs as possible. Thus far, the price spikes here have been more modest; Asus reports jumps of 20-40 percent on certain models. Drive sourcing could become a major problem in the months to come as this type of shortage provides explosively fertile ground for a gray market in HDDs and HDD components. OEMs on razor-thin margins are going to be under enormous pressure to keep costs low, and aren’t likely to ask too many questions when it comes to securing drives.

Thailand, meanwhile, has no quick relief to offer. The government has stated that it hopes to have factories up and running again in three months, though it will take still more time for swamped industrial complexes to return to full output.

EarthRisk crunches data to predict extreme weather

EarthRisk crunches data to predict extreme weather | Green Tech – CNET News.

The HeatRisk application gives trained meteorologists tools to analyze the weather patterns that lead to extreme heat weeks before these events occur.

(Credit: EarthRisk Technologies)

EarthRisk Technologies is mining years of weather data for profit.

The San Diego-based start-up today launched HeatRisk, a Web-based application designed to predict extreme heat events 30 to 40 days out. The target audience is meteorologists who work for energy companies or other organizations which need a long-range forecast to hedge their risk from extreme temperatures.

Over time, EarthRisk Technologies intends to design a product aimed at less technical users and investigate whether its research method can be applied to predicting extreme storms, according to President and Chief Science Officer Stephen Bennett. Its first product, released last year, is for analyzing the factors that lead to extreme cold events.

More researchers are tapping powerful computers and software able to present big sets of data to address environmental problems, such as air and water quality or extreme weather. EarthRisk Technologies originally began as a research project at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography in San Diego, but company founders saw there was a business opportunity buried in its research.

“We realized if we could write a software application around our research, it would increase the value of the underlying research tremendously,” said Bennett. “The (corporate sponsors) said if you can put together a good application and continue to do cutting-edge research, we will be the first to sign up.”

Three years ago, Scripps was approached by energy companies and hedge funds which deal in energy futures to see if there was a way to identify major weather events beyond the National Weather Service forecast. In addition to causing safety hazards, extreme weather throws energy markets out of whack by creating an imbalance between supply and demand.

A power generator, for example, could use HeatRisk to prepare for a coming heat wave by purchasing fuel for auxiliary generators to meet higher demand. Having a longer lead time than traditional forecasts gives energy buyers and traders an advantage, explained Bennett.

Right now, the people who use the software need to be skilled in meteorology and be comfortable analyzing atmospheric conditions directly. Eventually, the company hopes its software could be used by retailers, farmers, or municipalities which can use long-range forecasts to prepare for extreme temperatures, Bennett said.

Dominoes lining up
The accuracy of weather forecasting has improved over the past decade from supercomputers and simulation software, but the focus tends to be on shorter-term windows than what EarthRisk is doing, Bennett said. And rather than trying to forecast average temperatures, EarthRisk is seeking the factors that lead to specific extreme temperature events.

The company’s TempRisk platform uses historical weather data to isolate the factors that lead to extreme temperatures.

(Credit: EarthRisk Technologies)

To build the application, researchers analyzed weather data going back to 1948 to identify the patterns that led up to extreme cold or heat. Each pattern is sort of like a domino and when enough of them line up, the software can help identify the probability of an extreme weather event, Bennett explained.

In a recent example, a combination of a large high-pressure system over Scandinavia and a low-pressure system in the Atlantic, followed by another system over the Solomon Islands pointed to a heat spike in the U.S.

People can use the analytical application through a Web browser and pay a fee for using it during a season and specific regions. A forecasting application could be ready in about six months, Bennett said.

Using software to dodge weather risk is new so it’s still not clear there is a strong demand for it. But EarthRisk isn’t the only company to use cloud computing and large amounts of data to hedge against extreme weather. Earlier this year, WeatherBill launched a service that gives farmers insurance against the effects of extreme weather by continuously analyzing weather data.