The United Nations has called an emergency meeting to discuss the Horn of Africa drought, which it says has already claimed tens of thousands of lives. Famine was declared in two regions of Somalia on Wednesday where 3.7 million people are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. Another eight million people need food assistance in neighboring countries including Kenya and Ethiopia. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon calls the situation a “catastrophic combination of conflict, high food prices and drought” and has appealed for immediate aid. We go to Nairobi for an update from Kiki Gbeho of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. We also speak with Christian Parenti, author of “Tropic of Chaos: Climate Change and the New Geography of Violence.” “This was predicted long ago by people on the ground,” Parenti says. “It’s a combination of war, climate change and very bad policy, particularly an embrace of radical free market policies by regional governments that mean the withdrawal of support for pastoralists, the type of people you saw with their dead cattle.” [includes rush transcript]
Kong: Skull Island (2017) HD
|Producer||:||Thomas Tull, Jon Jashni, Mary Parent, Alex Garcia.|
|Release||:||March 8, 2017|
|Country||:||United States of America.|
|Production Company||:||Warner Bros., Legendary Entertainment.|
|Genre||:||Science Fiction, Action, Adventure, Fantasy.|
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Seafood could be going off a lot of menus as the world warms. More than half of a group of fish crucial for the marine food web might die if, as predicted, global warming reduces the amount of oxygen dissolved in some critical areas of the ocean – including some of our richest fisheries.
The prediction is based on a unique set of records that goes back to 1951. California has regularly surveyed its marine plankton and baby fish to support the sardine fishery. “There is almost no other dataset going back so far that includes every kind of fish,” says Tony Koslow of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, who heads the survey. The survey records also include information on water temperature, salinity and the dissolved oxygen content.
Koslow’s team studied records of 86 fish species found consistently in the samples and discovered that the abundance of 27 of them correlated strongly with the amount of oxygen 200 to 400 metres down: a 20 per cent drop in oxygen meant a 63 per cent drop in the fish. There have been several episodes of low oxygen during the period in question, mainly in the 1950s and since 1984.
Global climate models predict that 20 to 40 per cent of the oxygen at these depths will disappear over the next century due to warming, says Koslow – mainly because these waters get oxygen by mixing with surface waters. Warmer, lighter surface waters are less likely to mix with the colder, denser waters beneath.
Of the 27 species most affected by low oxygen, says Koslow, 24 were “mesopelagic”: fish that spend the daytime in deep, dark waters below 200 metres to avoid predators such as squid that hunt by sight. There are 10 billion tonnes of mesopelagic fish globally – 10 times the annual global commercial catch – and they are a vital food for other fish and marine birds and mammals.
Out of the depths
In large segments of the Indian, eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans called oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), patterns of ocean currents already permit little downward mixing of surface water, so the dark depths where mesopelagics hide have barely enough oxygen for survival. Worldwide, OMZs are expanding both in area and vertically, pushing “hypoxic” water – water with too little oxygen for survival – to ever-shallower levels. Last year, Japanese researchers reported that this has nearly halved the depths inhabited by Pacific cod.
The California coast is an OMZ. When oxygen levels are even lower than usual, the hypoxic zone starts up to 90 metres closer to the surface. This means fish must stay in shallower, more brightly lit water, says Koslow, at greater risk from predators – which, he suspects, is what kills them. In the California data, predatory rockfish in fact boomed during periods of low oxygen.
“This is important work,” says William Gilly of Stanford University’s marine lab in Pacific Grove, California. He studies Humboldt squid, an OMZ predator whose recent movements seem consistent with Koslow’s idea.
“These findings are an example of the kinds of changes we will see more broadly throughout our oceans in coming decades, especially in OMZs,” says Frank Whitney of the Institute of Ocean Sciences in Sidney, British Columbia, Canada. Unfortunately, he notes, water and nutrient movements within OMZs make them among our richest fishing grounds.
Journal reference: Marine Ecology Progress Series, DOI: 10.3354/meps09270
Tensions between the Peruvian government and the rebel group the Shining Path erupted into bloody clashes in 1982—the same year that an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event scoured potato fields across the hilly nation. Doomsayers might see cause and effect, but scientists have so far struggled to connect widespread violence with global climate phenomena. Now, a new study suggests that civil strife is twice as likely to break out in many nations worldwide during El Niño years.
“More and more of the evidence is pointing toward a strong link between adverse weather or adverse climate and political violence in the world’s poor regions,” says Edward Miguel, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, who was not involved in this study. “This is an important piece of evidence in that debate.”
In 2009, Miguel and colleagues published a controversial paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, arguing that spikes in temperature had played a dramatic role in igniting African civil wars. While some scientists criticized the study’s statistical methods, many questioned its basic claim, says Solomon Hsiang, lead author of the new study, who studies the confluence of political and climate science at Columbia University. The question, Hsiang says, became, “Is it at all possible that global climate can affect conflict?” Scientists, he adds, don’t have the know-how to turn the thermostat up or down on the planet and then sit back to watch how angry people get.
But the planet does flip from hot to cold naturally: every few years as waters in the tropical Pacific cool, during La Niña events, or heat up, during El Niño years. These rapid, periodic shifts in climate, Hsiang and his colleagues realized, might make a good proxy for studying how climate might impact war around the world.
So the team examined 234 clashes each claiming more than 25 lives between governments and rebel groups across the globe from 1950 to 2004. In the tropical nations most affected by ENSO swings, such as Peru, the Sudan, or India, the likelihood of civil violence erupting doubled during El Niño years, from about 3% to 6%, amounting to an extra 48 clashes, the group reports online today in Nature. In nations separated from the steep climatic shifts associated with ENSO events, including the United States, France, and China, the chances of civil strife remained at a steady low of 2%. But just how El Niño events fanned the flames in what were largely the world’s poorest nations is unclear, Hsiang says.
Such a relationship between climate swings and political instability seems, at least anecdotally, to have a long history, says Thomas Homer-Dixon, a nature and society researcher at the University of Waterloo in Canada: “What we’re seeing is a modern-day manifestation of a phenomenon that goes back millennia.” The city of Angkor in modern Cambodia, for instance, known for its web of monsoon-fed irrigation canals, fell to invaders in the mid-15thcentury. A series of droughts began to dry up those famous canals during the same period in history. As Hsiang and colleagues found, those societies most at the whim of climate tended to also be the nations with economies still rooted in agriculture, Homer-Dixon notes.
But Halvard Buhaug, an international relations specialist at the Centre for the Study of Civil War in Oslo and a sharp critic of Miguel’s 2009 study, doesn’t see cause and effect just yet. “I still believe that socioeconomic and political factors are the most important, common drivers of civil wars,” he says. “But the intriguing finding … certainly deserves further scrutiny.” Without knowing how exactly climate swings can lead to violence, if at all, he says, it becomes an uphill battle for humanitarian organizations to direct preventative measures.
The Plumpy’Nut is coming. But will it arrive in time to save 3.5 million people who the Somali foreign minister says may starve to death?
Today the UN World Food Programme has airlifted 14 tonnes of the highly enriched “therapeutic” peanut butter to Mogadishu, the Somali capital, for immediate distribution to the 40,000 refugees who have gathered there to escape the triple crisis of drought-aggravated famine, war and escalating food prices.
Since it was recommended by the World Health Organization in 2007 as the emergency food of choice for malnourished infants, Plumpy’Nut, manufactured by French company Nutriset, has become a staple of international famine relief. Children can eat it straight from the packet instead of having to be fed intravenously. Based on peanut butter, it contains sugar, vegetable fat, and skimmed milk powder enriched with vitamins and minerals.
Now it’s at the heart of a twin-track plan agreed in Rome, Italy, today by the UN to address the famine crisis affecting 12 million people in the Horn of Africa.
Stéphane Doyon, a nutrition expert for the charity Médecins Sans Frontières, says that sending ready-to-eat therapeutic foods like Plumpy’Nut is the best strategy to combat malnutrition in children rapidly. “It’s proven to work best against severe malnutrition, especially in situations where you don’t have the flexibility to individualise interventions,” he says. “Based on clinical science and evidence, they contain the right blend of macro and micronutrients needed to rehabilitate children from severe malnutrition.”
The crisis is particularly affecting Somalia itself and neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia, where refugees from Somalia are arriving at a rate of 1500 to 2000 per day, according to the UNHCR refugee agency. The UN today agreed that the long-term solution is to invest in the future of farming in the region, but the other, much more urgent priority is to save those close to death through starvation.
“It’s vital we reach those at the epicentre of the famine with food assistance, especially the highly fortified nutritious products that are so important for vulnerable children,” WFP’s executive director Josette Sheeran said in a statement in Rome.